Normally I'd have a big write up for my Oscar predictions, but life happens. So I'll keep it simple by posting my picks with little or no explanation. Hopefully, the Academy can focus on the films and not who slapped who and why. JV
Best Picture
"All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)
"Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios)
“The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
"The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
“Tár” (Focus Features)
“Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
"Triangle of Sadness” (Neon)
“Women Talking” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)
Who I Like: "Everything Everywhere All at Once"
Who I Think: "Everything Everywhere All at Once"
Dark Horse: "Top Gun: Maverick"
Best Director
Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”)
Todd Field (“Tár”)
Ruben Östlund (“Triangle of Sadness”)
Who I Like: Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert
Who I Think: Todd Field
Dark Horse: Steven Spielberg
Imagine Spielberg being the greatest filmmaker of his generation (and arguably all time), yet he's a dark horse this year.
Best Actor
Austin Butler (“Elvis”)
Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”)
Paul Mescal (“Aftersun”)
Bill Nighy (“Living”)
Who I Like: Brendan Fraser
Who I Think: Austin Butler
Dark Horse: Colin Farrell
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett (“Tár”)
Ana de Armas (“Blonde”)
Andrea Riseborough (“To Leslie”)
Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”)
Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Who I Like: Michelle Yeoh
Who I Think: Cate Blanchett
Dark Horse: Cate Blanchett
Blanchett shouldn't be seen as a dark horse because she is actually a favorite. But Yeoh and EEAAO has been cleaning up during awards season.
Best Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Brian Tyree Henry (“Causeway”)
Judd Hirsch (“The Fabelmans”)
Barry Keoghan (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Who I Like: Ke Huy Quan
Who I Think: Ke Huy Quan
Dark Horse: Barry Keoghan
Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”)
Hong Chau (“The Whale”)
Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Stephanie Hsu (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Who I Like: Jamie Lee Curtis
Who I Think: Stephanie Hsu
Dark Horse: Kerry Condon & Angela Bassett
This is the tightest race amongst the four acting categories and is almost a toss up. All five actors are deserving - I won't be surprised regardless the winner.
Best Original Screenplay
“The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
“The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
“Tár” (Focus Features)
“Triangle of Sadness” (Neon)
“An Irish Goodbye” (Floodlight Pictures)
Who I Like: "Everything Everywhere All at Once"
Who I Think: "Everything Everywhere All at Once"
Dark Horse: "The Banshees of Inishirin"
Best Adapted Screenplay
“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)
“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” (Netflix)
"Living” (Sony Pictures Classics)
"Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
“Women Talking” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)
Who I Like: "Women Talking"
Who I Think: "All Quiet on the Western Front"
Dark Horse: "Women Talking"
Best Animated Feature
"Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” (Netflix)
“Marcel the Shell With Shoes On” (A24)
“Puss in Boots: The Last Wish” (DreamWorks Animation)
“The Sea Beast” (Netflix)
“Turning Red” (Pixar)
Who I Like: "Marcel the Shell With Shoes On"
Who I Think: "Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio"
Dark Horse: "Marcel the Shell With Shoes On"